Distinguished ProfessorTuan Van Nguyen

Professor Nguyen's research has helped transform osteoporosis assessment from reliance on bone mineral density alone to individualised prediction of fracture risk. His work established that fracture risk reflects the combined effects of age, bone density, previous fractures, falls and other individual characteristics, providing a foundation for risk-based rather than diagnosis-based approaches to fracture prevention.

A major translation of this research was the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator, co-developed by Professor Nguyen and colleagues and launched in 2008. It is the first tool internationally to provide individualised estimates of absolute fracture risk, the Calculator has been extensively validated in independent populations and has been used by clinicians and patients worldwide. It continues to be referenced in contemporary osteoporosis guidelines and clinical pathways, including Australian guidance. The Garvan Institute reports that the Calculator receives tens of thousands of visits each year and has contributed to the clinical management of osteoporosis internationally.

Building on this work, Professor Nguyen developed BONEcheck™, a next-generation digital platform that extends fracture prediction beyond a single probability estimate. BONEcheck integrates fracture and refracture risk, genomic information, Skeletal Age, projected time to osteoporosis, and contextualised communication of treatment benefits to support informed discussion between patients and healthcare professionals. Its underlying fracture prediction algorithm has undergone external validation in multiple populations. Within five months of its launch, BONEcheck had already been accessed by more than 15,000 users across 165 countries, demonstrating rapid international reach.

Professor Nguyen's research has also changed how the consequences of fracture are communicated. His concept of Skeletal Age translates the impact of fracture and fracture-related mortality into an intuitive measure that can be more readily understood by patients and clinicians. The underlying work has drawn on population data involving more than 1.6 million individuals, providing a new framework for communicating skeletal fragility and its consequences.

His impact extends from individual risk prediction to population-wide fracture prevention. Using data from the long-running Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study, Professor Nguyen and colleagues showed that relatively modest improvements in population bone density were accompanied by substantial reductions in hip-fracture incidence. Between two population cohorts approximately a decade apart, hip-fracture incidence was 46% lower in women and 61% lower in men, supporting a prevention strategy in which small improvements in bone health across the whole population can generate large benefits for the community.

Professor Nguyen's research has changed the clinical assessment of osteoporosis in Vietnam. His team established population-specific reference values for bone mineral density in Vietnamese men and women, replacing reliance on reference data derived from overseas populations. The research demonstrated that use of US reference values could substantially overestimate osteoporosis in Vietnamese people — from 29% to 44% in postmenopausal women and from 10% to 30% in men aged 50 years and older. The Vietnamese reference standards have subsequently informed the interpretation of bone-density measurements in Vietnam, providing a more appropriate basis for diagnosis and clinical decision-making.

Collectively, this program of research has moved from epidemiological discovery to risk prediction, clinical tools, digital health, risk communication and population prevention. It has provided clinicians and individuals with practical ways to quantify and understand fracture risk, informed clinical guidance, and contributed to a shift towards personalised and preventive approaches to osteoporosis worldwide.